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Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune The folks at the Board must have been really happy with the Tribune's recent story about families staying in Chicago -- or even moving back -- to send their kids to CPS (Urban families building city experience for kids). But I found it really hard to read and highly questionable in terms of its reporting.
First off, the anecdote opening the story seems misleadingly atypical -- a family called the Howells moving back to Chicago after two years in Paletine. There are no numbers showing that happens a lot. Ditto for the claim that "More couples say they plan to raise their children in Chicago rather
than the suburbs, citing everything from the length of their commute,
to diversity in their decision." How many more? More than what? Where does that shit come from, other than some City of Chicago brochure?
I know this was in the real estate section, and I'm obviously not against families staying and sending their kids to school in Chicago. Kudos to Bell and Nettlehorst and to the parochial schools that are still growing and get mentioned in the story. But this has to be one of the emptiest fake trend stories I've ever seen, and I've seen lots.
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Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 1:14 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
This academic report would seem to support your intuition.
http://www.luc.edu/sociology/pdfs/Chicago_Report.pdf
The city's population declined 62,000 between the 2000 census and mid-decade; almost all population growth is among Hispanics; both the white and black populations are declining. Out-migration is the reason for the city's declining population.
http://www.luc.edu/sociology/pdfs/Chicago_Report.pdf
The city's population declined 62,000 between the 2000 census and mid-decade; almost all population growth is among Hispanics; both the white and black populations are declining. Out-migration is the reason for the city's declining population.
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 2:02 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
"...More couples say they plan to raise their children in Chicago rather than the suburbs, citing everything from the length of their commute, to diversity in their decision..." (Trib article, yesterday).
More of which couples in what part of town.
If Sam Zell's newspaper relied on anecdotal "evidence" from wealthy slivers of Chicago for its projections, the guy would be bankrupt by now. This kind of reporting on the demographic trends in the sliver of Chicago where the affluent live has been a mainstay of the Daley administration's nonsense for the past 12 years. When CPS memberships were increasing during the 1990s, Daley's guys (Paul Vallas and Gery Chico) attributed the increases to the Daley "miracle." Now that overall memberships are decreasing (primarily because of the destruction of housing for the poor exemplified by the elimination of public housing in the old stretches of CHA projects, especially in those areas slated for gentrification), Daley spin goes in another direction.
Both are fed with anecdotes, but not data.
It's always nice to have a "demographic" quote that ignores most of the city. Bell's "overcrowding" is a result of CPS choices to take in more and more children for the gifted programs there. The real overcrowding, based on swelling demographics, comes in the northwest side (here in Portage Park and beyond) and on the southwest side. In dozens of schools, the new children increasing the enrollments are speaking languages other than English in their homes, and I have a hunch that most of those families couldn't afford the taxes on a home east of Bell, let alone the entire three-flat.
More of which couples in what part of town.
If Sam Zell's newspaper relied on anecdotal "evidence" from wealthy slivers of Chicago for its projections, the guy would be bankrupt by now. This kind of reporting on the demographic trends in the sliver of Chicago where the affluent live has been a mainstay of the Daley administration's nonsense for the past 12 years. When CPS memberships were increasing during the 1990s, Daley's guys (Paul Vallas and Gery Chico) attributed the increases to the Daley "miracle." Now that overall memberships are decreasing (primarily because of the destruction of housing for the poor exemplified by the elimination of public housing in the old stretches of CHA projects, especially in those areas slated for gentrification), Daley spin goes in another direction.
Both are fed with anecdotes, but not data.
It's always nice to have a "demographic" quote that ignores most of the city. Bell's "overcrowding" is a result of CPS choices to take in more and more children for the gifted programs there. The real overcrowding, based on swelling demographics, comes in the northwest side (here in Portage Park and beyond) and on the southwest side. In dozens of schools, the new children increasing the enrollments are speaking languages other than English in their homes, and I have a hunch that most of those families couldn't afford the taxes on a home east of Bell, let alone the entire three-flat.
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 3:04 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
Just imagine the "real" stories and what is true or not?
What is the worst part of it is that so many people have come to believe these large news outlets are the truth and do not question what is on the pages. As a hobby when I was a teenager I use to read at least three major papers a day and then flip between the news channels during the evening broadcasts to see which reports were the closest. The beauty of the net is you can meta-search materials almost instantly if you know what you are doing to compare stories and filter out what is the truth. Lots of the stories like the one above are more leading than news. Meaning - taking readers to a place or frame of mind that hopefully will lead to predetermined action.
In the old days it was called PROPAGANDA!
Wait until the economy get worse and oil is $300/bbl, the city will do all it can to remove any non-producing families to the outskirts and bring as many money-making families back in. Look at other industrialized cities that have flipped the idea of the city as centered and controlled by industrialization as explains the
Park/Burgess model of the city. Now what is going to happen is that the low paying wage jobs are located outside the cities and higher wage earners will move back into the center not only for employment and comradery but for safety from those that have less earning opportunities. When I wrote my dissertation I studied Czechoslovaks and over the years as they became more educated the moved further from the lower class sections of the city. Now you can track bohemians to suburbs like Westchester and beyond, a total shift from the city center where they lived 150 years ago. Using data and following the trends of population shifts there will be major relocations as can be seen in the depopulation of the low income housing areas of the city.
Do you actually think once all those college students living in those new downtown dorms will move to the suburbs when they get use to all the amenities of the city and cultural opportunities? No way, they will be reconditioned from their grandparents’ suburban generation to become city dwellers again.
The issue will then become, will the people being forced out of the cities comply with the trends of repopulation and be satisfied with the non-services of the suburbs. Look at what has been happening in France 2005 and 2007 when the poor are pushed out and have no chance for success, they destroy anything that is in their way. Not a happy ending, but what is to be the expected outcome when people are manipulated and tricked into believing one thing or another and then wake up to reality one day.
What is the worst part of it is that so many people have come to believe these large news outlets are the truth and do not question what is on the pages. As a hobby when I was a teenager I use to read at least three major papers a day and then flip between the news channels during the evening broadcasts to see which reports were the closest. The beauty of the net is you can meta-search materials almost instantly if you know what you are doing to compare stories and filter out what is the truth. Lots of the stories like the one above are more leading than news. Meaning - taking readers to a place or frame of mind that hopefully will lead to predetermined action.
In the old days it was called PROPAGANDA!
Wait until the economy get worse and oil is $300/bbl, the city will do all it can to remove any non-producing families to the outskirts and bring as many money-making families back in. Look at other industrialized cities that have flipped the idea of the city as centered and controlled by industrialization as explains the
Park/Burgess model of the city. Now what is going to happen is that the low paying wage jobs are located outside the cities and higher wage earners will move back into the center not only for employment and comradery but for safety from those that have less earning opportunities. When I wrote my dissertation I studied Czechoslovaks and over the years as they became more educated the moved further from the lower class sections of the city. Now you can track bohemians to suburbs like Westchester and beyond, a total shift from the city center where they lived 150 years ago. Using data and following the trends of population shifts there will be major relocations as can be seen in the depopulation of the low income housing areas of the city.
Do you actually think once all those college students living in those new downtown dorms will move to the suburbs when they get use to all the amenities of the city and cultural opportunities? No way, they will be reconditioned from their grandparents’ suburban generation to become city dwellers again.
The issue will then become, will the people being forced out of the cities comply with the trends of repopulation and be satisfied with the non-services of the suburbs. Look at what has been happening in France 2005 and 2007 when the poor are pushed out and have no chance for success, they destroy anything that is in their way. Not a happy ending, but what is to be the expected outcome when people are manipulated and tricked into believing one thing or another and then wake up to reality one day.
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 3:08 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
The Guardian David Miller: "The propaganda we pass off as news around the world" February 15, 2006.
New York Times editorial: "And Now, the Counterfeit News" - March 16, 2005, by David Barstow and Robin Stein.
How to write distorted news – NY Times vs. Washington Post - from Rasmusen Weblog. July 22, 2004.
references found @ News Propaganda
New York Times editorial: "And Now, the Counterfeit News" - March 16, 2005, by David Barstow and Robin Stein.
How to write distorted news – NY Times vs. Washington Post - from Rasmusen Weblog. July 22, 2004.
references found @ News Propaganda
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 7:29 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
Everyone I know would like to move out of the city if they could afford to especially those with children. I know people from many different cultural and economic backgrounds and I meet few that are truly satisfied with city living. I think that the exception is a few that are rich enough to live in the elite areas. This article has to be false. Looking around many different neighborhoods, I don't see a growth in any group except the hispanics. If the article had focused on this group, they would be much more accurate.
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 9:20 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
According to the CPS Racial Demographic survey which can be found at http://research.cps.k12.il.us/cps/accountweb/Reports/RacialSurvey/
On September 30. 1998 there were 45,523 white students in CPS forming 10.1% of the student body. On September 30, 2006 there were 33,564 white students in CPS forming 8.1% of the student body. On September 30, 2007 there were 32,788 white students in CPS forming 8.0% of the student body.
From 1998 to 2007 CPS lost 12,735 white students or 28% of its white students. The CPS has been losing white students the whole time CPS has been attempting to reform itself and has been under legal control of the Office of the Mayor.
Unless the new data to be released shows some kind of an amazing change in the trend we are seeing then it seems safe to say the white middle class in not rapidly returning to the city to enroll their children in the CPS. Alexander's point is well taken.
Rod Estvan
Access Living
On September 30. 1998 there were 45,523 white students in CPS forming 10.1% of the student body. On September 30, 2006 there were 33,564 white students in CPS forming 8.1% of the student body. On September 30, 2007 there were 32,788 white students in CPS forming 8.0% of the student body.
From 1998 to 2007 CPS lost 12,735 white students or 28% of its white students. The CPS has been losing white students the whole time CPS has been attempting to reform itself and has been under legal control of the Office of the Mayor.
Unless the new data to be released shows some kind of an amazing change in the trend we are seeing then it seems safe to say the white middle class in not rapidly returning to the city to enroll their children in the CPS. Alexander's point is well taken.
Rod Estvan
Access Living
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 10:05 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
Rod, can you post the results for African-American, Hispanic and Asian students for these same years?
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
On September 30, 1998 there were 229,148 Black students in CPS forming 53.2% of the student body and there were 144,062 Hispanic students forming 33.4% of the student body. By September 30, 2007 there were 198,205 black students in CPS forming 47.9% of the student body and there were 158,386 Hispanic students in CPS forming 38.3% of the student body.
Therefore from 1998 to 2007 the number of Black CPS students declined by 30,943 or 14%. During the same time frame the number of Hispanci students increased by 14,324 or 10%.
I have on paper enrollment data going back to the 1940s, most of the documents I have were given to me when CPS moved to Clark Street they tossed tons of historical data which I have. Maybe after I retire I will put all of this stuff in electoric form. I also got at the same time very detailed studies that CPS conducted of its early special education system. Some of the information from the 1950s and 1960s about Black children who were "blue sliped," i.e. sent to special ed is disturbing to say the least. I hope to write a book about this one day. I have heard rummors that our friend George has even more stuff than I do.
Rod Estvan
Access Living
Therefore from 1998 to 2007 the number of Black CPS students declined by 30,943 or 14%. During the same time frame the number of Hispanci students increased by 14,324 or 10%.
I have on paper enrollment data going back to the 1940s, most of the documents I have were given to me when CPS moved to Clark Street they tossed tons of historical data which I have. Maybe after I retire I will put all of this stuff in electoric form. I also got at the same time very detailed studies that CPS conducted of its early special education system. Some of the information from the 1950s and 1960s about Black children who were "blue sliped," i.e. sent to special ed is disturbing to say the least. I hope to write a book about this one day. I have heard rummors that our friend George has even more stuff than I do.
Rod Estvan
Access Living
Thu Jul 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
Yeah, the article would have done well to be tempered with some phrases like "some families," or "schools in certain neighborhoods"... Doubt the author meant to imply it was a true trend backed by numbers, but hey, when you get printed in a major newspaper, it certainly implies a level of fact that wasn't there.
Yes, there are certain neighborhoods with growing attendence. I do believe that Bell has grown as a result of neighborhood kids (the gifted program has stayed constant at one class per grade.)
Thank you for posting the racial info. VERY interesting.
I knew that the Caucasion number had been 10%, didn't realize it was down to 8%.
Yes, there are certain neighborhoods with growing attendence. I do believe that Bell has grown as a result of neighborhood kids (the gifted program has stayed constant at one class per grade.)
Thank you for posting the racial info. VERY interesting.
I knew that the Caucasion number had been 10%, didn't realize it was down to 8%.
Fri Jul 4, 2008 at 3:26 AM
Fake Trends In The Chicago Tribune
This is really an important thread, and the headline may over time help people from elsewhere at least raise a cautionary warning over virtually all claims made about CPS in this dictatorial era. The major public policy questions about where Chicago should deploy its capital resources (especially to relieve overcrowding of elementary schools) have nothing in common with this silly piece from the Tribune. The vast stretches of schools that are overcrodded are completely ignored, while a vocal and relatively wealthy (and very small) group gets significant attention.
As soon as I read that piece, I thought "Gallistel." But another 40 or 50 schools could have been names. And on the hypocrisy side, The Academy? Why is that specialized "school" squatting on some of the best school space in the second most overcrowded part of town, especially given its supposed "inner city" focus).
As most people are beginning to realize, however, the Tribune's dwindling number of reporters are rarely asked what they are learning on their beats. Chicago's corporate and political leaders brief the editorial board, which then dictates how the "news" staffs cover the "news." This piece is just one of about 40 examples (many off Page One of the Tribune) from the last three years.
It may even be that the Tribune newsroom no longer has the key collections of actual data about CPS that I twice shared (and helped duplicate) with Tribune beat reporters over the past quarter century. It's much easier for a "reporter" to recycle a bunch of PR handouts, then add a quote or two, than to spend the hundreds of hours it may take to dig up a real story with roots in the city (as opposed to tentacles in the PR departments of corporate Chicago and the various outposts of Daley).
One of the most consistent sets of data over time about CPS is the "Racial Ethnic Survey." CPS once compiled those data for both Students and Staff, in two separate books. The earliest collections we have at Substance are from the 1960s and were bequeathed to us by former staff members at the old central offices who were responsible for the integrity of data (and took that responsibility seriously).
Those reports were based on data collected between the opening of school and the first of each October in the schools. While somewhat imperfect (over time, some categories changed) they provided not only generally accurate data on individual schools, but across the system.
Since the mayoral takeover, there has been a systematic destruction of the public memory in key areas. The most obvious example that anyone can see if the refusal of CPS to publish an annual directory of the city's public schools in any publicly useful form (that wasn't a joke, like the "Calendar"). For nearly 100 years, CPS published an annual directory of all its schools and offices, literally a guidebook to every property owned and operated by CPS (with a couple of exceptions, like the downtown properties from the old "school land" trust that had been leased for decades).
A trend study of the data would easily show how ridiculous this recent Tribune story is. But how can anyone get the trend data to so even the simplest studies today?
Anyone who wants to try, let me know how long it takes to get the "Racial Ethnic Survey" for students and staff, going back from 2007 (October, the last year for which the data were compiled) in five-year increments to, say, 1977 (just before the banks too over during the last big financial bust, which cost the schools so dearly in 1979-1980 and subsequently).
When the data are not available readily to the public, any lie can be spun without contradiction. This is what CPS has been doing -- as a matter of policy -- since Paul Vallas became the first CEO and which CPS has continued to do with an even greater vengeance since Arne Duncan was made CEO in July 2001 (yes, this week is Arne's seventh anniversary as "CEO" of CPS).
But let me know where those data are available -- student and staff "Racial Ethnic Survey" -- as you search for them. What they will show shows how ridiculous many of the news reports the Tribune and Sun-Times spin are. Anecdote is not evidence, and quotes are not research.
As soon as I read that piece, I thought "Gallistel." But another 40 or 50 schools could have been names. And on the hypocrisy side, The Academy? Why is that specialized "school" squatting on some of the best school space in the second most overcrowded part of town, especially given its supposed "inner city" focus).
As most people are beginning to realize, however, the Tribune's dwindling number of reporters are rarely asked what they are learning on their beats. Chicago's corporate and political leaders brief the editorial board, which then dictates how the "news" staffs cover the "news." This piece is just one of about 40 examples (many off Page One of the Tribune) from the last three years.
It may even be that the Tribune newsroom no longer has the key collections of actual data about CPS that I twice shared (and helped duplicate) with Tribune beat reporters over the past quarter century. It's much easier for a "reporter" to recycle a bunch of PR handouts, then add a quote or two, than to spend the hundreds of hours it may take to dig up a real story with roots in the city (as opposed to tentacles in the PR departments of corporate Chicago and the various outposts of Daley).
One of the most consistent sets of data over time about CPS is the "Racial Ethnic Survey." CPS once compiled those data for both Students and Staff, in two separate books. The earliest collections we have at Substance are from the 1960s and were bequeathed to us by former staff members at the old central offices who were responsible for the integrity of data (and took that responsibility seriously).
Those reports were based on data collected between the opening of school and the first of each October in the schools. While somewhat imperfect (over time, some categories changed) they provided not only generally accurate data on individual schools, but across the system.
Since the mayoral takeover, there has been a systematic destruction of the public memory in key areas. The most obvious example that anyone can see if the refusal of CPS to publish an annual directory of the city's public schools in any publicly useful form (that wasn't a joke, like the "Calendar"). For nearly 100 years, CPS published an annual directory of all its schools and offices, literally a guidebook to every property owned and operated by CPS (with a couple of exceptions, like the downtown properties from the old "school land" trust that had been leased for decades).
A trend study of the data would easily show how ridiculous this recent Tribune story is. But how can anyone get the trend data to so even the simplest studies today?
Anyone who wants to try, let me know how long it takes to get the "Racial Ethnic Survey" for students and staff, going back from 2007 (October, the last year for which the data were compiled) in five-year increments to, say, 1977 (just before the banks too over during the last big financial bust, which cost the schools so dearly in 1979-1980 and subsequently).
When the data are not available readily to the public, any lie can be spun without contradiction. This is what CPS has been doing -- as a matter of policy -- since Paul Vallas became the first CEO and which CPS has continued to do with an even greater vengeance since Arne Duncan was made CEO in July 2001 (yes, this week is Arne's seventh anniversary as "CEO" of CPS).
But let me know where those data are available -- student and staff "Racial Ethnic Survey" -- as you search for them. What they will show shows how ridiculous many of the news reports the Tribune and Sun-Times spin are. Anecdote is not evidence, and quotes are not research.
